Working wetlands: classifying wetland potential for agriculture

Wetlands / Ecology / Natural resources / Social aspects / Case studies / Zanzibar / Tanzania / Zimbabwe / Swaziland

Tackling Change: Future-Proofing Water, Agriculture, and Food Security in an Era of Climate Uncertainty

In 1950 the global population was just over 2.5 billion. Now, in 2013, it is around 7 billion. Although population growth is slowing, the world is projected to have around 9.6 billion inhabitants by 2050. Most of the population increase will be in developing countries where food is often scarce, and land and water are under pressure. To feed the global population in 2050 the world will have to produce more food without significantly expanding the area of cultivated land and, because of competition between a greater number of water users, with less freshwater. On top of land and water constraints, food producers face climatic and other changes which will affect food production. There remains great uncertainty as to how climate change will affect any given locality, but it seems likely that it will have a profound effect on water resources. Projected rises in average temperature, more extreme temperatures, and changes in precipitation patterns are likely to alter the amounts and distribution of rainfall, ice and snow melt, soil moisture, and river and groundwater flows. Now and in the future, agriculture and food security depend on managing water—a finite resource, but variable in time and space

Tackling Change: Future-Proofing Water, Agriculture, and Food Security in an Era of Climate Uncertainty

In 1950 the global population was just over 2.5 billion. Now, in 2013, it is around 7 billion. Although population growth is slowing, the world is projected to have around 9.6 billion inhabitants by 2050. Most of the population increase will be in developing countries where food is often scarce, and land and water are under pressure. To feed the global population in 2050 the world will have to produce more food without significantly expanding the area of cultivated land and, because of competition between a greater number of water users, with less freshwater. On top of land and water constraints, food producers face climatic and other changes which will affect food production. There remains great uncertainty as to how climate change will affect any given locality, but it seems likely that it will have a profound effect on water resources. Projected rises in average temperature, more extreme temperatures, and changes in precipitation patterns are likely to alter the amounts and distribution of rainfall, ice and snow melt, soil moisture, and river and groundwater flows. Now and in the future, agriculture and food security depend on managing water—a finite resource, but variable in time and space

Tackling Change: Future-Proofing Water, Agriculture, and Food Security in an Era of Climate Uncertainty

In 1950 the global population was just over 2.5 billion. Now, in 2013, it is around 7 billion. Although population growth is slowing, the world is projected to have around 9.6 billion inhabitants by 2050. Most of the population increase will be in developing countries where food is often scarce, and land and water are under pressure. To feed the global population in 2050 the world will have to produce more food without significantly expanding the area of cultivated land and, because of competition between a greater number of water users, with less freshwater. On top of land and water constraints, food producers face climatic and other changes which will affect food production. There remains great uncertainty as to how climate change will affect any given locality, but it seems likely that it will have a profound effect on water resources. Projected rises in average temperature, more extreme temperatures, and changes in precipitation patterns are likely to alter the amounts and distribution of rainfall, ice and snow melt, soil moisture, and river and groundwater flows. Now and in the future, agriculture and food security depend on managing water—a finite resource, but variable in time and space

Afrontar el Cambio: Cuidar del Agua, de la Agricultura y de la Seguridad Alimentaria en una Era de Incertidumbre Climática

En 1950, la población mundial era apenas superior a los 2500 millones de habitantes. En 2013, ronda los 7 mil millones. Aunque el crecimiento de la población se está ralentizando, se estima que en 2050 se alcanzarán los 9600 millones de habitantes. El aumento de la población será mayor en los países en desarrollo, donde los alimentos a menudo escasean, y la tierra y el agua están sometidas a presión. Para alimentar a la población mundial en 2050, tendrán que producirse más alimentos sin que haya un aumento significativo del terreno de cultivo y contando con un caudal menor de agua dulce, debido al aumento del número de consumidores. Además de los problemas relacionados con la tierra y con el agua, los agricultores deben hacer frente al cambio climático y a otros cambios que afectarán su producción. Aún no se sabe bien cómo el cambio climático afectará en diferentes ubicaciones. Sin embargo, es probable que tenga un gran impacto sobre los recursos hídricos. El aumento proyectado de la temperatura promedio, las temperaturas más extremas y los cambios en los regimens pluviométricos con mucha probabilidad incidirán sobre la cantidad y distribución de las lluvias, los deshielos, la humedad del suelo y los caudales de los ríos y de las aguas subterráneas. Tanto en la actualidad como en el futuro, la agricultura y la seguridad alimentaria dependen de la gestión del agua: un recurso limitado, pero variable en el tiempo y el espacio

Effects of Cannabidiol on exercise physiology and bioenergetics : a randomised controlled pilot trial

Background: Cannabidiol (CBD) has demonstrated anti-inflammatory, analgesic, anxiolytic and neuroprotective effects that have the potential to benefit athletes. This pilot study investigated the effects of acute, oral CBD treatment on physiological and psychological responses to aerobic exercise to determine its practical utility within the sporting context. Methods: On two occasions, nine endurance-trained males (mean±SD V̇O2max: 57.4±4.0 mL·min−1 ·kg−1 ) ran for 60 min at a fixed intensity (70% V̇O2max) (RUN 1) before completing an incremental run to exhaustion (RUN 2). Participants received CBD (300 mg; oral) or placebo 1.5 h before exercise in a randomised, double-blind design. Respiratory gases (V̇O2), respiratory exchange ratio (RER), heart rate (HR), blood glucose (BG) and lactate (BL) concentrations, and ratings of perceived exertion (RPE) and pleasure–displeasure were measured at three timepoints (T1–3) during RUN 1. V̇O2max, RERmax, HRmax and time to exhaustion (TTE) were recorded during RUN 2. Venous blood was drawn at Baseline, Pre- and Post-RUN 1, Post-RUN 2 and 1 h Post-RUN 2. Data were synthesised using Cohen’s dz effect sizes and 85% confidence intervals (CIs). Effects were considered worthy of further investigation if the 85% CI included±0.5 but not zero. Results: CBD appeared to increase V̇O2 (T2:+38±48 mL·min−1, dz: 0.25–1.35), ratings of pleasure (T1:+0.7±0.9, dz: 0.22–1.32; T2:+0.8±1.1, dz: 0.17–1.25) and BL (T2:+3.3±6.4 mmol·L−1, dz:>0.00–1.03) during RUN 1 compared to placebo. No differences in HR, RPE, BG or RER were observed between treatments. CBD appeared to increase V̇O2max (+119±206 mL·min−1, dz: 0.06–1.10) and RERmax (+0.04±0.05 dz: 0.24–1.34) during RUN 2 compared to placebo. No differences in TTE or HRmax were observed between treatments. Exercise increased serum interleukin (IL)-6, IL-1β, tumour necrosis factor-α, lipopolysaccharide and myoglobin concentrations (i.e. Baseline vs. Post-RUN 1, Post-RUN 2 and/or 1-h Post-RUN 2, p’s<0.05). However, the changes were small, making it difficult to reliably evaluate the effect of CBD, where an effect appeared to be present. Plasma concentrations of the endogenous cannabinoid, anandamide (AEA), increased Post-RUN 1 and Post-RUN 2, relative to Baseline and Pre-RUN 1 (p’s<0.05). CBD appeared to reduce AEA concentrations Post-RUN 2, compared to placebo (−0.95±0.64 pmol·mL−1, dz: −2.19, −0.79). Conclusion: CBD appears to alter some key physiological and psychological responses to aerobic exercise without impairing performance. Larger studies are required to confirm and better understand these preliminary findings

Improving ultrasound video classification: an evaluation of novel deep learning methods in echocardiography

Echocardiography is the commonest medical ultrasound examination, but automated interpretation is challenging and hinges on correct recognition of the ‘view’ (imaging plane and orientation). Current state-of-the-art methods for identifying the view computationally involve 2-dimensional convolutional neural networks (CNNs), but these merely classify individual frames of a video in isolation, and ignore information describing the movement of structures throughout the cardiac cycle. Here we explore the efficacy of novel CNN architectures, including time-distributed networks and two-stream networks, which are inspired by advances in human action recognition. We demonstrate that these new architectures more than halve the error rate of traditional CNNs from 8.1% to 3.9%. These advances in accuracy may be due to these networks’ ability to track the movement of specific structures such as heart valves throughout the cardiac cycle. Finally, we show the accuracies of these new state-of-the-art networks are approaching expert agreement (3.6% discordance), with a similar pattern of discordance between views

Multi-method genome- and epigenome-wide studies of inflammatory protein levels in healthy older adults

The molecular factors which control circulating levels of inflammatory proteins are not well understood. Furthermore, association studies between molecular probes and human traits are often performed by linear model-based methods which may fail to account for complex structure and interrelationships within molecular datasets.In this study, we perform genome- and epigenome-wide association studies (GWAS/EWAS) on the levels of 70 plasma-derived inflammatory protein biomarkers in healthy older adults (Lothian Birth Cohort 1936; n = 876; Olink® inflammation panel). We employ a Bayesian framework (BayesR+) which can account for issues pertaining to data structure and unknown confounding variables (with sensitivity analyses using ordinary least squares- (OLS) and mixed model-based approaches). We identified 13 SNPs associated with 13 proteins (n = 1 SNP each) concordant across OLS and Bayesian methods. We identified 3 CpG sites spread across 3 proteins (n = 1 CpG each) that were concordant across OLS, mixed-model and Bayesian analyses. Tagged genetic variants accounted for up to 45% of variance in protein levels (for MCP2, 36% of variance alone attributable to 1 polymorphism). Methylation data accounted for up to 46% of variation in protein levels (for CXCL10). Up to 66% of variation in protein levels (for VEGFA) was explained using genetic and epigenetic data combined. We demonstrated putative causal relationships between CD6 and IL18R1 with inflammatory bowel disease and between IL12B and Crohn’s disease. Our data may aid understanding of the molecular regulation of the circulating inflammatory proteome as well as causal relationships between inflammatory mediators and disease

Antipsychotic medication versus psychological intervention versus a combination of both in adolescents with first-episode psychosis (MAPS): a multicentre, three-arm, randomised controlled pilot and feasibility study

Background Evidence for the effectiveness of treatments in early-onset psychosis is sparse. Current guidance for the treatment of early-onset psychosis is mostly extrapolated from trials in adult populations. The UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence has recommended evaluation of the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of antipsychotic drugs versus psychological intervention (cognitive behavioural therapy [CBT] and family intervention) versus the combination of these treatments for early-onset psychosis. The aim of this study was to establish the feasibility of a randomised controlled trial of antipsychotic monotherapy, psychological intervention monotherapy, and antipsychotics plus psychological intervention in adolescents with first-episode psychosis. Methods We did a multicentre pilot and feasibility trial according to a randomised, single-blind, three-arm, controlled design. We recruited participants from seven UK National Health Service Trust sites. Participants were aged 14–18 years; help-seeking; had presented with first-episode psychosis in the past year; were under the care of a psychiatrist; were showing current psychotic symptoms; and met ICD-10 criteria for schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorder, or delusional disorder, or met the entry criteria for an early intervention for psychosis service. Participants were assigned (1:1:1) to antipsychotics, psychological intervention (CBT with optional family intervention), or antipsychotics plus psychological intervention. Randomisation was via a web-based randomisation system, with permuted blocks of random size, stratified by centre and family contact. CBT incorporated up to 26 sessions over 6 months plus up to four booster sessions, and family intervention incorporated up to six sessions over 6 months. Choice and dose of antipsychotic were at the discretion of the treating consultant psychiatrist. Participants were followed up for a maximum of 12 months. The primary outcome was feasibility (ie, data on trial referral and recruitment, session attendance or medication adherence, retention, and treatment acceptability) and the proposed primary efficacy outcome was total score on the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) at 6 months. Primary outcomes were analysed by intention to treat. Safety outcomes were reported according to as-treated status, for all patients who had received at least one session of CBT or family intervention, or at least one dose of antipsychotics. The study was prospectively registered with ISRCTN, ISRCTN80567433. Findings Of 101 patients referred to the study, 61 patients (mean age 16·3 years [SD 1·3]) were recruited from April 10, 2017, to Oct 31, 2018, 18 of whom were randomly assigned to psychological intervention, 22 to antipsychotics, and 21 to antipsychotics plus psychological intervention. The trial recruitment rate was 68% of our target sample size of 90 participants. The study had a low referral to recruitment ratio (around 2:1), a high rate of retention (51 [84%] participants retained at the 6-month primary endpoint), a high rate of adherence to psychological intervention (defined as six or more sessions of CBT; in 32 [82%] of 39 participants in the monotherapy and combined groups), and a moderate rate of adherence to antipsychotic medication (defined as at least 6 consecutive weeks of exposure to antipsychotics; in 28 [65%] of 43 participants in the monotherapy and combined groups). Mean scores for PANSS total at the 6-month primary endpoint were 68·6 (SD 17·3) for antipsychotic monotherapy (6·2 points lower than at randomisation), 59·8 (13·7) for psychological intervention (13·1 points lower than at randomisation), and 62·0 (15·9) for antipsychotics plus psychological intervention (13·9 points lower than at randomisation). A good clinical response at 6 months (defined as ≥50% improvement in PANSS total score) was achieved in four (22%) of 18 patients receiving antipsychotic monotherapy, five (31%) of 16 receiving psychological intervention, and five (29%) of 17 receiving antipsychotics plus psychological intervention. In as-treated groups, serious adverse events occurred in eight [35%] of 23 patients in the combined group, two [13%] of 15 in the antipsychotics group, four [24%] of 17 in the psychological intervention group, and four [80%] of five who did not receive any treatment. No serious adverse events were considered to be related to participation in the trial. Interpretation This trial is the first to show that a head-to-head clinical trial comparing psychological intervention, antipsychotics, and their combination is safe in young people with first-episode psychosis. However, the feasibility of a larger trial is unclear because of site-specific recruitment challenges, and amendments to trial design would be needed for an adequately powered clinical and cost-effectiveness trial that provides robust evidence

The adoption of pottery on Kodiak Island: Insights from organic residue analysis

Pottery technology, originating in Northeast Asia, appeared in Alaska some 2800 years ago. It spread swiftly along Alaska’s coastline but was not adopted on Kodiak Island until around 500 cal BP, as part of the Koniag tradition. While in the southeast pottery was used extensively, people on the northern half of the island did not adopt the technology. What drove these patterns of adoption and non-adoption on Kodiak Island? To better understand the role of ceramic technology in the Koniag tradition we used organic residue analysis to investigate pottery function. Results indicate that pottery was used to process aquatic resources, including anadromous fish, but especially marine species. Based on archaeological and ethnographic data, and spatial analysis of pottery distributions and function, we hypothesize that Koniag pottery was a tool inherent to the rendering of whale oil on the southeast coast of Kodiak Island, supporting previous suggestions by Knecht (1995) and Fitzhugh (2001). When viewed in the broader historical context of major technological and social transformations, we conclude that social identity and cultural boundaries may also have played a role in the delayed and partial adoption of pottery on Kodiak Island